How Will The COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus Pandemic End?

Have you ever wondered how this COVID-19 global pandemic will end?
Everyone has. No one can give you an exact answer, but there are some likely scenarios.

To answer this question we would need to look at how a previous pandemic was brought to an end: The SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in 2002.

SARS ( 2002 – 2004 )

During the 2002 SARS outbreak it took about 20 months for a vaccine to be ready for testing on humans. In essence, twenty-first century science rather played a small role in controlling the disease compared to nineteenth-century techniques which were effective to limit infection rates.

This included a collaboration among scientists and health officials around the world to work together to map the SARS genome and develop reliable tests within weeks of the outbreak.

The global SARS pandemic was brought to an end in July 2003, after measures were consistently followed which included isolating people suspected of having the condition and screening all passengers travelling from affected countries for early symptoms of the infection.

However, SARS reemerged for a moment during 2004 in China. It is suspected that someone came into direct contact with a sample of the SARS virus in a medical laboratory.

There have been no further recorded cases of SARS-CoV-1 since 2004.

The first symptoms of the COVID-19 coronavirus were recorded in Wuhan, China as early as the 8th of December 2019. The first fatality as a result of the disease occurred on the 11th January 2020 in Wuhan.

These are the 4 likely outcomes of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic

1) Containment of active COVID-19 infections through social distancing

Through identifying and isolating the infected, COVID-19 could be kept from spreading around the globe. As previously discussed, this is how SARS which is also a member of the coronavirus family, was contained by 2003.
Given the fact that the global SARS-CoV-2 ( COVID-19 ) infections are already 10 times more than SARS-CoV-1 infections when it ended in 2004, this is unlikely.

2) The COVID-19 pandemic becomes an endemic

The novel coronavirus could become an endemic, which is a reoccurring disease like the common flu which re-surfaces regularly. COVID-19 strains could join the pantheon of circulating respiratory viruses. Much like types of Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human Metapneumovirus and Adenovirus.
Well, let’s hope it doesn’t!

3) A big portion of the population becomes infected

With over 300,000 global cases at this point, this scenario is “far-fetched” but not unlikely based on the transmission rate! A big part of the population could become infected with COVID-19 whereby survivors would become immune to the disease which will ultimately reduce the infection rate drastically. According to Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, if the virus cannot be contained, the only way for this to get under control is for about 50 percent of people to become immune to it.

4) Climate change may reduce the spread of COVID-19

The warmer it gets, the more difficult the conditions are for many viruses. Some viruses like the seasonal flu become much less transmittable as temperatures and humidity rise in the summer months ( depending on the region ). It is to be noted that the novel coronavirus vastly differs from the seasonal flu though. Furthermore, the CDC has cautioned that not enough is known about the virus to say for sure that weather will affect the spread. There still remains hope however that the transmission rate of COVID-19 may decline with an increase in temperature and humidity. Only time will tell.


The average mortality rate of the coronavirus is around 4.3%. Patients above the age of 69 are at most risk where the mortality rate is in excess of 9.8% on average.

Will a vaccine be available soon to stop the COVID-19 epidemic?

This is not known at this stage. Whilst the medical industry is more advanced than ever before, it is likely that this will still take some time.

According to experts, it would take a minimum of 12-18 months for a COVID-19 vaccine to be deployable and safe to be used in humans.

Summary

Whilst climate change is rather unlikely to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus, the world may still be able to contain the COVID-19 outbreak with social distancing.

If social distancing isn’t consistently executed, it might be possible that a big part of the population will be infected and become immune to the disease. Which could play a part in the virus mutating and becoming an endemic that re-surfaces regularly.